1/18/2024 0 Comments Suns vs nuggets this seasonBetMGM books are reporting even play on the total, with 55% of bets on the Over and 52% of the money leaning to a higher-scoring finish Tuesday night. The Game 5 O/U opened at 228 points and has stayed somewhat still, with some books dipping to 227.5 points as of Tuesday morning. can’t be counted on for consistent contributions - at least they weren’t on the road. Denver’s top guns Jokic and Jamal Murray anchor the attack, but guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets weren’t getting the same results from their complementary pieces. Cameron Payne has taken over at point guard for the injured Paul, stepping in as a steady hand and making shots when needed. You could make the case that Phoenix is playing better basketball without Paul in the lineup, with the Suns upping the tempo from a pace rating of 95.25 to 98.25 the past two games along with an effective field goal rate of 59.7% in those home outings. Denver has to find a way to slow down the combo of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, who combined for 158 points in the two games in Phoenix, or 63% of the Suns’ total offensive output in those contests. The Nuggets won all three home games against Minnesota in the opening round (2-1 ATS) and boast a net rating of +13.6 inside Ball Arena so far this postseason.īut holding home court just isn’t enough. According to BetMGM, 78% of the ticket count and 77% of the handle is laying the points with the host team tonight.ĭenver was dominant on its own court in the opening two games of the series, scoring 10 and 18-point victories as a favorite of -4.5 and -4. The home team is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in this series, and with home chalk boasting a solid 28-16 ATS count (64%) in the NBA Playoffs overall, bookies are pumping up the points for the Game 5 spread.ĭenver hit the board as short as a 4-point favorite and with Suns veteran guard Chris Paul still sidelined with a groin injury (and Nikola Jokic dodging a possible suspension), this spread has since climbed to Nuggets -5.5. Suns vs Nuggets Game 5 spread and Over/Under analysis My best bet: Nikola Jokic Under 30.5 points (-106)Īffiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site. Expect Jock to get inside Nikola's jock more often tonight as Phoenix searches for answers on defense. Landale played only 21 minutes in Game 4 and checked Jokic for just a short period, but held the Joker to 4 of 8 shooting and a turnover. Phoenix head coach Monty Williams is throwing more beef at Jokic with Deandre Ayton and Jock Landale sharing defensive duties. The dust up with Suns' owner Mat Ishbia on the sideline in Game 4 nearly took care of the problem, but kudos to Ishbia for lobbying the league not to suspend Jokic. It’s truly a “sell high” situation with Denver’s man in the middle, but the Phoenix Suns must clamp down on Jokic in some capacity if it wants to take the edge in this series. My number lands just short of 26 points for Jokic, which is around what he’s averaging at home so far this postseason. Jokic’s points projections range from 24 points to just Under 27 for Game 5, which leaves more leg room for Under bettors than what those ever-shrinking airplanes dole out in economy class. However, if we buy into the player projections for Game 5, we see the Joker nowhere near his scoring total for tonight’s tilt. and the two-time MVP is fully capable of another monster night on the scoresheet. There will be no shortage of Over action on Jokic’s points prop based on his recent output. Those herculean efforts have boosted Jokic’s point prop to as high as 30.5 (Over -110) for Tuesday night - a three-point hike from his Game 4 total of 27.5 O/U, and a four-point adjustment from his other three scoring prop O/U in this series. The core of that approach is center Nikola Jokic, who has gone for 54, 30, and 39 points in the past three games after opening the series with a 24-point performance in Game 1. The Denver Nuggets are back atop the mountain hoping to rekindle the home-court edge they held in the opening two games of this series. Like jamming my hefty 6-foot-4 frame on an airplane, my best bet for Game 5 is asking you to be comfortable with being uncomfortable for a couple of hours. Suns vs Nuggets Game 5 picks and predictions I dissect the point spread and Over/Under action for Game 5, peer into the NBA player props market, and give my best NBA picks for the Suns vs. The sum of Phoenix Suns' stars Kevin Durant and Devin Booker has so far been equal to that of the entire Denver Nuggets, with this Western Conference semifinal locked at 2-2 heading back up the mountain for Game 5 inside Ball Arena tonight.ĭenver won the opening two games of the series at home followed by Phoenix returning serve in the desert, and that home-court edge has NBA odds dealing the Nuggets as the biggest home chalk so far in this series.
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